Friday, December 30, 2016

2016 in Review

2016, also known as  Year Six of the Modern Age of Electric Cars is about to end, so i took the time to review some of the most important facts this year:

Image result for Tesla Model 3
Model 3: 9 months away from hitting the roads, but already the most important EV in History

The EV Future will be bright (But it's not here yet)

If there is a phrase that sums up the general feeling in the Plug-in scene in 2016, it's the one above, starting with the production-spec Chevrolet Bolt Detroit presentation in January, the Tesla Model 3 earthquake in March, 31st, and ending with several announcements of long range EV's throughout the year, the fact is that buyers had a taste of the Second Generation EV's, but all they could buy during 2016 were First Generation BEV's / PHEV's and a couple of 1.5G models (Chevrolet Volt II, Hyundai Ioniq Electric), which lead to a Osborne effect in many western markets, with buyers preferring to wait for the upcoming models, leading to a drop in sales of First Generation electric cars.


BYD Song plug-in: Announced for 2016, now scheduled for 2017

BYD Remained Number One (But failed to amaze us) 

After watching BYD sales surge three-fold and reaching the Best Selling plug-in manufacturer status in 2015, one would think that sales would at least double in 2016, but this wasn't the case, with around 100.000 units sold this year, or 64% growth, it felt like when Messi won the Pichichi Trophy with 45 goals, yes it was impressive, but the previous year he had scored 50...

Having won seven Monthly Best Seller Trophies (January, April, May, June, July, August, October), and with a 30.000 units lead over the Second Placed Tesla, the Best Selling Manufacturer trophy is more than deserved, but this was more due to regularity (Five consecutive months at 10.000-something) than outlandish results, with the two most impressive results of the year going to Tesla (13.394 units last September) and Zotye (12.318 in October). Using the Messi analogy, it was like despite the 45 goals, not once did the Argentinean player scored a poker during the whole season.

The model diversification (Tang, e5, etc) occurred in 2015, didn't followed in 2016, with only the BYD Qin EV300 reinforcing the lineup, while the Song and Yuan Crossovers and the T3 Van remained in the sideline.

Will they appear in 2017? They'd better do, as 2017 in the Chinese EV Market will be even more fierce, with foreign carmakers forced to join the local EV party and on a global level, there will be other OEM's (Tesla, BMW, BAIC) targeting 100k or more EV's for 2017.

You'll better step up, BYD...

Image result for baic eu260
BAIC EU260: A rising star
China is Rising - Third Chapter

2016 was Year Three for the Chinese EV market, with foreign makers still neglecting the Chinese EV market, where the local brands have 95% of this booming market to themselves, this allowed the Chinese EV makers global share to rise from 31% in 2015 to 43% in 2016, with China rapidly becoming the place to be, not only it is the largest EV market in the World, but also the fastest growing one, volume-wise.

Even mentioning EV Share, China is making giant steps, their plug-in share is now at 1.4%, an important improvement over the 0.9% of 2015 and already above markets like the USA or Europe, both close to 1%.

If BYD and BAIC are frequently mentioned here, others are also contributing for this unstoppable wave, like Zotye (#6 in the global manufacturers ranking), SAIC Roewe (#12), Zhidou (#13) or Chery (#15).

An interesting trend is the steady climb of chinese cars in the global ranking, if in 2013 the best positioned chinese model was outside the Top 10 (#11 - Chery QQ3 EV), in the following year there were two (#7 - BYD Qin & #10 - Kandi EV) in the Top 10, 2015 witnessed three models in the Best Sellers ranking (#4 - BYD Qin; #6 - Kandi Panda EV; #8 - BYD Tang), while in 2016 there are four (#3 - BYD Tang; #7 - BYD Qin; #9 - BAIC E-Series EV; #10 - BAIC EU260) models, with the Tang becoming the first Chinese model to reach a Podium seat.

Expect for 2017 to reinforce this trend, maybe with five Chinese models in the Top 10?



I'm Too Sexy (To Surf the Wave)

Sometimes Tesla behavior reminds that of a certain Right Said Fred hit, with a near cult-like following from its fans and a Model 3 success that surpassed Elon's wildest dreams, it would be more than enough to keep every other OEM happy and they would just surf the wave and prepare for the Model 3 goldmine.

Not Tesla. During 2016, they did a Model S facelift (Ok, they had to do something about that nose), improved their P90D/90D versions, replaced the 70 version for the 60/75 units, which together with the QA issues of the Model X, created unnecessary production constraints in Q1 & Q2.

As the year progressed and the Q3 was turning out to be memorable, they thought: "This is becoming boring, we haven't presented anything awesome in the past couple of months, so what can we do? I know, the P90D is passé, let's do the P100D! And add the Second Gen. Autopilot!"

With another two jaw-dropping additions, they managed to increase even further their sexyness-awesomeness, with the minor detail of screwing up the production plan of Q4...

With all this, the new Power packs and all the rest that's going on (Gigafactory, Model 3 tooling...), being COO of Tesla must be one of the toughest jobs on Earth.

Then again, Tesla has to keep their cult followers happy, right?

Image result for bmw i3

BMW steps up from other German Automakers

Following on the Volkswagen Dieselgate and Tesla's increasingly larger appetite for premium customers, German automakers joined the EV bandwagon with both feet, announcing big plans for the future, but the fact is that in 2016, only BMW made the necessary step-up.

In the BMW i-line models, the i3 model finally received a decent battery, with 33kWh, pulling sales to record levels and making it the cornerstone of its plug-in strategy.

The German automaker also launched the 740e plug-in hybrid, which was an instant hit in its class, helping BMW to have the most extensive plug-in lineup of all, while all other PHEV's were also beating sales records, which allowed it to become the Third Best Selling Plug-in maker in 2016, the first among established OEMs;

German automakers global share remained stable at 19%, with BMW (8% Share) surpassing Volkswagen (5%) as the major Teutonic EV maker, with Mercedes in Third, with 2% share, Audi in Fourth (2%), followed by Porsche (1%) and Smart (0%), with BMW being the only brand to win share (+2%) regarding last year.




Global Sales Continue to Grow

After a slow start, EV sales picked up pace, now expected to surpass the 750.000 units, after the 140k of 2012, low-200k in 2013, 320k in 2014, and 550k last year.


Growth Is All Around

While Norway continues to be the poster-child for EV Share (29% Share!) and China the King of Volume (Over 100.000 units more than in 2015!), others are also making themselves noted, like Belgium (1.76% in '16 vs 0.78% in '15) or Austria (1.6% vs 0.6%), while several countries in the Scandinavian region, probably inspired by the Norwegian case-study, are growing at surprising rates and reaching high market shares, like Sweden (3.7%), Iceland (4.2%) on Finland (1.2%).

Other markets finally had their Year One in 2016, like Luxembourg (0,61%), Lithuania (0,40% vs 0,04% last year) or Romania (0.14%).

Despite the general positive trend, there were some slowing markets this year, with the largest being Japan, that for the second consecutive year is falling significantly, with its current market share (0.45%) far from the 2014 peak, when it was flirting (0.98%) with the 1% barrier.

Other two markets dropping significantly regarding 2015 are the Netherlands (3.4% vs 9.3%) and Denmark (0.6% vs 2.3%), but in these cases the culprit is easy to identify, as fiscal changes made EV's less appealing to local buyers.

Also of importance is the dissemination of plug-ins into countries not associated with EV's, like Malaysia (Some 106 units), UAE (283 sales), Sri Lanka (993 units!) or Ecuador (20 Twizzies).







Wednesday, December 28, 2016

World Top 10 November 2016

Image result for zotye cloud ev
Zotye Cloud EV - Best Seller in November

Models - Chinese Take Over, Chapter Two

The global EV market had its second best month ever in November, with some 79.000 units delivered, representing a 39% growth YoY, if the same growth rate happens in December,  a month from now we should be celebrating a 120.000 units record month, placing the 2016 final tally at some 780.000 units, 40% above 2015.

In the models ranking, the big news were once again the Chinese models grabbing the November Top Spots, starting with the Zotye Cloud EV, Best Seller in November with 5.024 units, with the Silver Medal going to the Geely Emgrand EV, with 3.799 units, while the remaining podium seat going also to another Chinese model, the BAIC EU260, with 3.769 units, thus making a 100% Chinese Podium, the first time this happens, but i believe it won't be the last.

But the take over didn't end there, there were three additional Chinese models (#5 Zotye E200, with 3.500 units, #7 Chery eQ, 3.233 units and #10 BYD e5, 2.113), in the November Top 10, making six(!) models from that country in the monthly Top 10. And BYD only contributed with one model...

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Tesla Model S has the Nissan Leaf within shooting range, so the last-month-of-the-quarter-peak should pull it to another Models title, like it did last year.

The recent poor performances of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has allowed the Chevrolet Volt to close in and with the help of the expected December peak in the US market, the GM model should end the year in the Fourth Spot. 

The BMW i3 33-kWh-kick continues to be felt, with the German Hot Hatch delivering a record 2.875 units, securing its Sixth Place, while the BAIC E-Series EV suffered from production constraints (The EU260 has priority over it #LargerProfits) and delivered only 735 units, its worst result in almost two years, dropping one position to #9, to the benefit of the Renault Zoe, which recovered its Eighth Position.

In #10 we have a fresh face, with the BAIC EU260 replacing the Tesla Model X, but with the American Sports-Minivan-Crossover-Thing only 185 units away and the #12 BYD e6 some 400 units behind, a lot can still happen in December between the #8 to the #12 spots.

The rise of the Chinese manufacturers has significantly changed the BEV/PHEV breakdown, at this moment BEV's have a 63% take rate, well above the 37% of PHEV's, we have to go back five years to see such a big difference, so China's Wild Card into EV's is not only increasing the number of plug-ins on the road but also helping BEV's to overcome the PHEV technology.

PlWORLDNov. YTD%'15Pl
1Nissan Leaf3.52946.80572
2Tesla Model S3.37543.34771
3BYD Tang1.57829.89558
4
5
6
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Chevrolet Volt
BMW i3
1.873
2.862
2.875
24.500
24.334
22.828
4
4
3
3
9
5
7BYD Qin1.11821.04734
8Renault Zoe1.48818.97037
9BAIC E-Series EV73518.587311
10BAIC EU2603.76918.496364

TOTAL 79.257
660.140



Manufacturers -  Zotye Surges 

Looking at November Best Selling manufacturers, three of the Top Four brands came from China (#1 Zotye, #2 BYD, #4 BAIC), with BMW being the only foreigner, in Third.

Zotye had a Tesla-like surge last month, registering 12.318 units, the second best result ever (Only Tesla did better, last September, with over 13k units) by any brand, possibly probably due to dealership registrations, anticipating the upcoming incentive changes in China, allowing it to jump to the Sixth Place in the YTD ranking.

As for BYD, with only 8.315 units, it had its worst result in seven months, which raises the question: Is this due to production constraints or are the new arrivals making a dent into the once all-mighty BYD?

As for the Bavarian automaker, the benefits from a strong (And extensive) lineup allowed it to reach a new all-time high, with 7.571 units, distancing itself from Nissan and securing the Third Spot for 2016. With ambitious goals for 2017 (100k sales), expect the German carmaker to continue being one of the leading OEMs next year. 

With Chevrolet selling at decent levels and its newest baby, the Bolt, arriving in December, expect the American brand to have a deliveries peak next month (Do i hear 4.000 units?), which should be enough to overcome Mitsubishi and reach #8.

As for Mitsubishi, whether its #8 or #9, 2016 will be remembered as its lowest place in the ranking, a sad place to be for a carmaker that has been pushing for EV's since 2009. That's what you get when you don't improve your lineup...  

With Zotye jumping to #6, someone had to leave the Top 10, and that one was Ford, now #11, some 3.000 units behind Renault, so unless Ford Goes Tesla in December and surprises us all (Highly unlikely), the French brand has the #10 secured in 2016.

To have a better idea of how fast Chinese brands are growing in the EV industry, in 2013 they had delivered some 12.000 units, which made them have 6% of the total EV market.

In 2014, their numbers grew to 53.000 units and 17% of all plug-ins sold that year, a year after they had 180.000 units and 31% of the EV market, and now, November 2016, they have 286.000 units sold this year and 43% of all EV's registered in 2016.

So, 6% to 43% share in less than three years. Not bad... 

PlWORLDNov.YTD%'15Pl
1BYD8.31592.385141
2Tesla 4.76961.68592
3BMW7.57154.06386
4Nissan3.93050.62584
5
6
7
BAIC
Zotye
Volkswagen
4.788
12.318
3.019
41.711
32.155
31.875
6
5
5
12
9
5
8Mitsubishi2.45328.90443
9Chevrolet2.90127.500411
10Renault2.09425.87448




Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Europe November 2016 (Updated)

Image result for 2016 Outlander PHEV in the snow
Theme of the month: Snow, John Snow

BMW i3 Best Seller in November


The European EV market had more than 18.500 registrations last month, 5% down over the same month last year, this sales slip has to do with the incentives-derived sales rush in the last quarter of 2015, so expect this trend to continue until December. Last month, the Top Spots remained more or less like in October:


 Image result for BMW i3 in the snow
#1 BMW i3 – Thanks to the massive arrival of 33 kWh units to Norway (1.014 units registered), the BMW i3 earned its third Best Seller title in four months, this time with 2.092 units, up 51% YoY. Besides Norway, other markets where the Bimmer excelled was Germany (291 deliveries), France (117) and Austria (97 deliveries, 1 Rex).

Image result for 2016 Outlander PHEV in the snow
#2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – This time the Japanese SUV managed to outsell the Renault Zoe, reaching the Second Place last month, with 1.512 units, up 7% regarding October, but Mitsubishi saw the plug-in SUV sales drop 48% YoY, as sales at the end of last year were heavily inflated by incentives changes in the Netherlands and Sweden. Despite the loss on the Dutch market, the Outlander still managed to sell in the three digits area in four countries (Norway, Sweden, Germany and United Kingdom).

Image result for Renault Zoe in the snow
#3 Renault Zoe – Registrations were down 30% YoY to 1.438 units, with the mass delivery of the 40 kWh delayed and with buyers waiting for the extended range version, the model in a sort of no-mans-land. With a Tesla-like stunt in December unlikely, the 3.000 units delivered in December ’15 seem pretty far. Last month, good performances in Germany (303 registrations), Denmark (137) and Norway (100) weren’t enough to compensate the slip in its home market (547 units).
  
 Image result for 2016 Passat GTE in the snow
#4 VW Passat GTE – Volkswagen midsize offering continues to collect good results, besides the usual Sweden (295 units) and Norway (173), big time Passat GTE lovers, Volkswagen’s model had a great result in the Netherlands, with 363 units, its best result there this year, allowing it to reach the Fourth Position in Europe, with 1.067 units. With the right mix of electric range, space, power and price, the Passat GTE is a success among company fleets across Europe.

Image result for Nissan Leaf in the snow
#5 Nissan Leaf – Despite being on sale for almost six years and with new updates coming soon, the Japanese hatch was actually up 57% YoY in November, to 1.030 units, with deep discounts propelling sales across Europe and particularly in volume markets like, Norway, UK, Germany and France, proving that, if priced right, small range models can still sell quite well. The irony here is that 250 kms were considered a major improvement just a year ago, now it is considered “Small range”…

  
Image result for BMW 225xe Active Tourer in the snow
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
   
YTD Ranking – Outlander PHEV closer to the 2016 Best Seller Title

After running ahead for good part of the year and poised to finally win a Best Seller title, the deliveries delay of the 40 kWh units is dragging down the Renault Zoe performance, which dropped to Second Place, 89 units behind the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that despite seeing its sales drop 24% YoY, still managed enough momentum to surpass the French Hatchback and now is the favorite to win the 2016 title, which will be its Third in a row. This feels like those football matches where one of the teams (Renault) starts as favorite but ends up losing with an own goal in the 85th minute…Now all the other team (Mitsubishi) has to do is to wait a few more minutes and then raise the trophy.

Looking below the podium, the #7 VW Passat GTE is closing in on its smaller brother, the Golf GTE, and December might bring a position change between these two. Keeping on the sibling position changes, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer (828 units, new personal record) surpassed the X5 40e relative and reached #13.

November brought a couple of surprising performances, from the 373 units of the oldtimer Citroen C-Zero (Best result in four years), thanks to a fleet deal in Spain, to the 494 units of the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, a new model that has been receiving a warm welcome in several markets, something that Mercedes is also enjoying with its two new babies, the GLC350e (372 units, up to #27) and E350e (227).

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW cemented its leadership (17%, up 1%) over Volkswagen (15%), with Renault in Third, with 13% share, followed by Nissan (11%) and Mitsubishi (10%).

Pl
Europe
Nov.
2016
%
'15Pl
1
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1.512
18.804
10
1
2
Renault Zoe
1.438
18.715
10
2
3
Nissan Leaf
1.030
17.045
9
5
4
5
BMW i3
Tesla Model S
2.092
603
13.198
11.095
7
6
6
4
6
7
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Volkswagen Passat GTE
886
1.067
10.071
9.781
5
5
3
12
8
Mercedes C350e
693
8.377
4
11
9
Volvo XC90 T8
675
8.095
4
18
10
BMW 330e
982
7.302
4
37
11
12
Volkswagen e-Golf
Audi A3 e-Tron
409
590
6.354
5.745
3
3
4
7
13
14
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
BMW X5 40e
808
371
4.986
4.893
3
3
32
22
15
Kia Soul EV
274
4.064
2
10
16
Renault Kangoo ZE
305
3.709
2
13
17
Volvo V60 Plug-In
420
3.272
2
9
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Mercedes B250e
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Tesla Model X
Volkswagen e-Up!
Renault Twizy
Peugeot iOn
Citröen C-Zero
Mercedes GLC350e
BMW i8
Mercedes GLE500e
Bolloré Blue Car
Others
327
351
437
220
387
350
157
135
373
372
97
108
1
1.226
3.250
2.893
2.687
2.685
2.600
2.224
1.927
1.756
1.564
1.517
1.431
1.262
942
6.780
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
4
17
15
36
14
N/A
16
19
23
26
N/A
20
35
25

TOTAL
18.696
189.024
100

Article also published on EV Obsession and CleanTechnica.